NC STATE (15-12, 4-9) vs. FLORIDA STATE (16-12, 5-8)
DATE: Wednesday, February 27, 2008 @ RBC Center, Raleigh, NC (19,722)
TIME: Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. EST
RADIO: Wolfpack Sports Network.
AIRTIME: 6:30 p.m. EST
TELEVISION: ESPNU
OPPONENT—Florida State’s future looked very bleak on February 16, following losses to Wake Forest and Maryland. The Seminoles were 3-8 in the ACC and appeared to be dead in the water. But after back-to-back home wins, FSU has a mathematical shot at breaking its 10-year NCAA Tournament drought.
Make no mistake; the road is a very difficult one. Florida State would have to win its remaining three regular season games, including a trip to UNC on March 4th, and maybe at least one game in the ACC Tournament. However, if the ‘Noles keep playing the kind of defense they’ve displayed recently, anything is possible.
In wins over Clemson and Boston College, FSU allowed an average of only 59 points, .356 shooting from the field and forced a total of 39 turnovers.
Against BC on Saturday, ACC steals leader, Toney Douglas was the hero. He scored 20 points while playing lock-down defense on the Eagles’ top scorer. Tyrese Rice finished with 17 points, but had only 3 points after halftime and did not record a field goal in the second half.
FSU scored 21 points off of 18 BC turnovers, and made its last nine free throws after starting the game 4-for-9.
The Seminoles held the Eagles without a field goal for six and half minutes in the second half. They led by as many as 14 points after the intermission, but turnovers and missed shots opened the door for a BC comeback.
Shamari Spears' 3-point play with 35-seconds left pulled the Eagles within two, but Ralph Mims sank two free throws and Uche Echefu stripped Rice at the other end of the floor. Douglas added two more free throws to seal the 66-63 victory and give FSU its first two-game ACC win streak of the season.
Florida State has endured a lot of injuries and adversity this season, especially inside. 7-1 freshman Solomon Alabi was lost for the season after 9 games with a stress fracture. After 10 games, 6-8 junior Casaan Breeden transferred to the College of Charleston. 6-9 Ryan Reid was suspended for 9 games.
Although the perimeter is deep, it certainly doesn't help to have a veteran presence like Isaiah Swann (11.8 ppg.) absent from the lineup down the stretch. The senior tore his ACL in a February 6th win at Miami.
The only consistent post player for FSU is 6-9 Uche Echefu, although Reid and Julian Vaughn have stepped up. During the two game win streak, Reid and Vaughn have combined to average 6.5 points and 11.5 rebounds.
Offsetting the ‘Noles inside issues is a trio of ultra-quick, experienced guards who like to play at a fast tempo, relentlessly attack the basket and break down opposing defenses with dribble penetration. They not only dash and slash; they can shoot from long-range too.
Douglas is a natural scorer and outstanding defender and he has worked hard to become a good point guard. In the last five games, Douglas has averaged 23.2 points a game, including back-to-back 28 point performances against Miami and Wake Forest.
Since Swann was forced to the sidelines, Mims has stepped up to average 14.3 points over the last four games. Mims drives the ball effectively, shoots 38 percent from 3-point range and averages nearly 2 steals a game.
Jason Rich has also elevated his game lately, averaging 17.6 points over his last seven outings. During that stretch he has recorded four games of 20 points or more. Rich has averaged in double-figure scoring in each of his last three seasons.
The Seminoles are good at exploiting mismatches with their guards against bigger defenders, allowing them to either drive and finish, dish or pull up for jump shots. They also average 9 steals a game and create a lot of offense with their defense.
Despite its “guard heavy” attack, FSU has more turnovers than assists (445-320) and is alongside NC State at the bottom of the ACC in scoring in league games (68.2 ppg.).
FSU’s defense has steadily improved. In ACC games, the ‘Noles lead the conference in scoring defense (72.8) and they’re fifth in field goal percentage defense (.443). However, they’re near the bottom of the league in rebounding margin against ACC opponents (-3.5).
In 2006-07, defending the 3-point shot was a strong point for the ‘Noles, but not this season. In conference games, opponents are shooting 38 percent from the bonusphere. NC State is shooting 39 percent from the arc vs. league teams.
Keeping the Seminoles off the foul line makes a big difference. Florida State is among the nation’s top free throw shooting teams (.776) and it leads the ACC. The Seminoles shoot (.738) in league games from the foul line.
Coach Leonard Hamilton does not have as deep a bench as he’d like and uses mainly an 8-man rotation. Douglas, Rich and Mims all average at least 30 minutes a game
FSU has beaten the Pack only twice in the last 17 games of the series. State downed the ‘Noles 69-66 in Tallahassee on January 26. A 3-pointer by Courtney Fells tied the game at 66-all with 40-seconds left. Two free throws with 9 seconds remaining by J.J. Hickson gave State a 68-66 advantage. Hickson then blocked a shot by Douglas with 2-seconds to play to seal the win.
PROBABLE FLORIDA STATE STARTERS
No. Name Pos. Ht. Class PPG RPG APG
23 Toney Douglas G 6’1 Jr. 15.8 2.8 2.9
25 Jason Rich G 6’3 Sr. 13.4 4.4 2.0
10 Ralph Mims G 6’3 Sr. 11.0 4.4 1.6
41 Uche Echefu F 6’9 Jr. 10.2 7.1 1.0*
42 Ryan Reid F 6’8 So. 4.8 4.7 --
TOP RESERVES:
21 Julian Vaughn F 6’10 Fr. 3.0 2.6 --
02 Jordan DeMercy F 6’7 Fr. 1.2 1.2 --
33 Matt Zitani F 6’7 Gr. 1.7 1.2 --
* Blocked shots per game
A WIN—Would break a Wolfpack 5-game losing streak—its longest since 2000—and improve State to 16-12 overall and 5-9 in the ACC with two regular season games remaining. The Pack would improve to 11-4 at home (4-3 ACC) and beat the Seminoles for the 16th time in the last 18 games of the series. State would sweep the regular season series with the Seminoles. The Wolfpack’s dominance over FSU at home would continue with State beating the ‘Noles for the 8 time in the last 9 games in Raleigh. Florida State would fall to 16-13 overall and 5-9 in the ACC, all but dashing the Seminoles hopes of breaking a 10-year NCAA Tournament drought.
A LOSS--Would extend State’s losing streak to 6-games –its longest since 2000 when the Pack dropped seven-straight regular season games. The Wolfpack would drop to 15-13 overall and 4-10 in the ACC with two regular season games remaining. The Seminoles would keep slim NCAA Tournament hopes alive while improving to 17-12 overall and 6-8 in the ACC. FSU would sweep the regular season series from the Wolfpack for the first time since 1998 and win for only the 3rd time in the last 18 games of the series. State’s home record would drop to 10-5 (3-4 ACC) with one regular season home game remaining.
DEFENSIVE DOWNER– During its five-game losing streak, State’s defense has allowed an average of 79.8 points (399) a game. Opponents are shooting .497 from the field (151-304) and .448 from the 3-point arc (30-67) during that stretch.
“70” IS A GREAT NUMBER – State is 3-1 against ACC opponents when holding them to 70 points or less, but only 1-8 when yielding 71 points or more.
A TALE OF TURNOVERS – State is 3-2 in ACC games when recording as many or fewer turnovers than its opponents. The Pack is 1-7 when losing the turnover battle in conference play. In the last 3 games, opponents have outscored the Pack 61-16 in points off turnovers.
F-I-N-I-S-H—State has won 3 ACC games this season after enjoying a halftime lead (Miami, FSU and Virginia Tech). However, the Pack lost games at Duke and Maryland after holding an edge at the intermission. Against Wake Forest, State trailed by 7 points at the break, but rallied to win.
SECOND HALF SWOON–During its 5-game losing streak, State has allowed opponents an average of 38.2 second-half points (191) as well as .550 shooting from the field (77-140) and .500 from 3-point range (16-32) in the final 20-minutes.
TOP SENIOR–Gavin Grant is State’s top scorer in ACC games (14.5) and he has made some big shots. Three times this season, Grant’s heroics in the final seconds have won games for the Wolfpack. His steal and layup with 2.1 seconds left in overtime gave State a 79-77 victory over Miami on Jan 19. Grant’s free throws against Villanova and Davidson were also game-winners. In the last 11 games, the senior forward has averaged 15.4 points (169) while shooting .490 from the field (51-104). That includes a 26-point outing at Duke on Jan. 31.
CUTTING IT CLOSE –The Pack’s four ACC wins have been decided by an average of only 4.3 points.
ACC ROOKIE CANDIDATE --J.J. Hickson leads all ACC freshmen in rebounding (8.6) and double-doubles (9) while holding down No. 2 in scoring (14.9). The Marietta, Georgia, native leads the conference in field goal percentage (.593) and is No.2 in rebounding. Hickson was chosen as the ACC Rookie of the Week for the third time on Jan. 28th after he averaged 14 points and 10 rebounds in games against Georgia Tech and FSU. In his last 6 games, the big center is averaging 14.6 points (88) and 9.2 rebounds (55) including two performances of 20 or more points. Hickson leads the Pack in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots (43). He tied his career high with 4 blocks on Feb. 16 against Clemson.
ACC RECORD – J.J. Hickson set an ACC single game freshman record with 23 rebounds in a loss to Clemson on Feb 16. If he continues to rebound at his current pace (8.6) he will break the NC State single season freshman record for rebounding average set by Kenny Carr in 1975 (8.2).
WANTED: REBOUNDING– Despite J.J. Hickson’s rebounding numbers, the Pack has outrebounded only 4-of-13 ACC opponents. In the last 5 games, State has been outscored 68-49 on second chance points.
OFF TARGET – Against ACC opponents, State shooting .381 from 3-point range, but has cooled off recently. In its last 4 games, the Pack is a combined 22-of-74 from the bonusphere (.297). In 8 games prior to that stretch, the Pack shot .421 from 3-point land (56-133).
DOUBLE-FIGURE FELLS –Courtney Fells has scored in double-figures in 11-of-13 ACC games this season and is the team’s No.2 scorer in league games (13.5) while shooting .516 from the field and .459 from the 3-point arc. His clutch 3-pointer with 18-seconds to play in overtime was huge in State’s victory over Miami on Jan. 19. On Jan. 23, Fells scored a career-high 23 points vs. Georgia Tech. Three days later at FSU, he sank two game-tying 3-pointers down the stretch to help State win. The junior guard is also the Pack’s best perimeter defender.
RANKED RECORD –State is 2-5 this season against foes ranked in the nation’s top-25. The Pack has faced more ranked opponents than any other ACC team.
FOUL ME... PLEASE – State is getting to the foul line an average of 21 times a game against ACC opponents and is shooting .702. The Pack has made 191 free throws in ACC games while its opponents have attempted only 231.
AT THE POINT – Freshman Javier Gonzalez and sophomore transfer Marques Johnson have been getting plenty of on the job training since a season-ending knee injury to starting point guard Farnold Degand on December 23rd. Both have made progress, but Gonzalez has improved up the most and has earned significant playing time. In his last 11 games, Gonzalez has averaged 5.6 points (62), 2.5 rebounds (28), 3.8 assist (42) and 2.4 turnovers (26). Gonzalez recorded a career-high 11points and 5 rebounds against Va.Tech on Feb 5. He dished out a career high 9 assists vs. UNC on Feb. 20.
ROLLERCOASTER RIDE– Brandon Costner’s season has been a battle for consistency. At Virginia on Feb. 24, the redshirt sophomore recorded a team-high 14 points in 26 minutes. However, in his two previous outings, Costner combined for only 8 points and 4 rebounds. Physical ailments have contributed to the inconsistency. Costner has played through various aches and pains this season, including a rib injury that continues to bother him. In State’s run in the ACC Tournament and NIT last year, Costner was a huge factor. He finished the campaign as State scoring and rebounding leader.
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Courtesy: Associated Press
